Tuesday, 24 March 2020

pandemic 2020 day 7

March 24. The reported total 384,000 have covid19. 16,000 have died. The more i learn, these numbers cannot be trusted due to the limited availability of testing. And, even in places where tests for covid19 are available there are so many more who either are asymptomatic (therefore would not yet seek out testing) or whom are experiencing the virus as something akin to a common cold or flu. Cases range from mild to fatal. So how many are truly infected and carrying the novel coronavirus? Likely 100x the existing data. That's what i have heard. So that would be 38 million and project out to 1.6 million fatalities. And certainly not peaked on most continents. They say there's not a single case on Antarctica. If the last pandemic took 50 million lives and the global population in 1918 was 1.8 billion then covid19 could be expected to take 200 million with population currently around 8 billion. This ratio (and i'm no math genius) approaches 1 out of every 36 people dying. Or approximately a 2.8% mortality rate, which is consistent with the data thus far. i know all this seems morbid and depressing, and i'm not trying to fan the flames of hysteria, i swear! i actually find the math comforting. imagine we are standing in a row of 36 randomly selected people, and god or the universe tells us one of us will be chosen to leave the earth?

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